We're still here at Lukenya, still waiting for the election results, and, from what we were told in our afternoon briefing, it looks like we'll be here longer than we originally thought. The first issue is with the provisional tallying of the ballots. Each of the polling stations was tasked with tallying the ballots and electronically providing those provisional counts to the tallying center in Nairobi. Provisional counting was to be done to provide transparency since that was a problem in the last election. Unfortunately, there was a breakdown in electronic transmitting of provisional counts, particularly in Odinga strongholds which is why it has been looking like Kenyatta is in the lead, and yesterday they decided that the counts must be done manually. The national tallying center in Nairobi is now waiting for ballots to arrive before counting them. If the polling centers weren’t able to do a provisional count, they will hand count every ballot. If there was a provisional count, they will attempt to certify it. Basically, we're now hoping that the winners will be announced on either Sunday or Monday. The new constitution stipulates that the winners must be announced within 7 days of the election but since this is a new rule no one really knows what will happen if they can't make the announcement by Monday.
The second issue is with spoiled and rejected ballots. These are ballots that have been rejected for various reasons. The main reason that ballots are considered "spoiled" in this election is due to the six-part, colour-coded balloting system that they put in place for this election. The ballots were colour-coded based on the level of the election: president, parliament, governors, senators, councillors and women's representative. The correctly coloured ballot then had to be placed in the correctly colored ballot box. The problem with this is that people were voting at dusk or in the dark and the ballots were coloured in pastels so many of the ballots ended up in the wrong boxes. Here's a photo of what this looked like taken from
this article:

Just yesterday, the IEBC (Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission) announced that the rejected/spoilt ballots will be included in the total number of ballots when calculating the percentage of the vote that each candidate receives. This is important because the winning candidate must receive 50% + 1 of the total vote to win in the first round and prevent a runoff. The problem is with the number of problematic ballots. International electoral statistics show that an acceptable number of rejected/spoilt ballots is 3.5-4% of the total count, though in Africa it's 1 % higher, so 4.5-5% of the total count. Right now in Kenya, the problematic ballot count is at 7% and possibly growing so this is a big problem for the integrity of the election process. I also forgot to mention that there are 22,600 election observers on the ground and 2600 of those are international observers, so this election process is being very closely monitored and scrutinized. As is expected, the candidates are protesting this decision to include the rejected ballots in the total count, especially Kenyatta, who has a healthy lead at the moment. By including these ballots, the percentage points for each candidate are lowered by 3% putting them below the 50% + 1 level needed to prevent a runoff. Though it's important to note that most of the provisional tallying that has been reported has been from Kenyatta strongholds. The problematic electronic transmission of results was mostly in Raila territory so the numbers are very likely to change.
So, what does this mean for us PCVs?? Well, best case scenario was that the tallying would go smoothly and we would have results by Thursday. Our plan was to wait a few days to gauge the national reaction and then head back to our sites on Saturday or Sunday. Now, due to the delay, a winner might not be announced until Sunday or Monday so we'll be hanging out at Lukenya, our consolidation point, longer than expected. It's possible we'll be here until Tuesday or Wednesday, or maybe longer. Or maybe we'll end up evacuating to Tanzania. There's just no knowing at this point and I'm unbelievably sad about it all. It may turn out just fine but I was operating in a haze of denial and this dose of reality is knocking the wind out of my sails. They're making plans to bus us off site to a city so we can get out of here for a little bit and stock up on supplies. PC staff has been very understanding and accommodating and have really kept our best interests in mind. We couldn't ask for better treatment during all of this. But I really want to get back to my students. I really want Kenya to remain stable and secure. These most recent events are troubling and the uncertainty they create is worrying. Again, here's hoping for peace in Kenya.
The upside to all of this is that PC has arranged for someone to do our laundry. Someone else gets to hand wash my clothes, a tedious task that has become my least favorite thing about this whole PC experience. The other upside is that I get to continue my early morning birding walks. This morning as I was chasing a pair of White Bellied Bustards:
I ran into this guy:
Here's the moment when he realizes I'm there:
Those horns freaked me out so I backed away slowly and headed home.
**UPDATE: I wrote all of the above and then read that the IEBC predicts that they'll have results by Friday morning. That's doubtful but we continue to repeat "Embrace Uncertainty" as our mantra. To be continued...